Slow Track North: Birmingham–Manchester Rail Link Pushed to 2040s

Plans for a new rail line connecting Birmingham and Manchester are unlikely to be realised until the 2040s at the earliest, MPs have been told—raising fresh concerns about future capacity on one of the UK’s busiest corridors.

The timeline was outlined during a Public Accounts Committee session on Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR), where senior Department for Transport (DfT) officials confirmed the long-term nature of the project.

A distant delivery date

Jo Shanmugalingam, the DfT’s Permanent Secretary, told MPs that no firm specification has yet been agreed for the proposed line, stressing that it is not a continuation of HS2 but a separate effort to safeguard future connectivity.

The scheme forms part of a three-phase NPR programme, which prioritises upgrades in Yorkshire, followed by a new Liverpool–Manchester line, before eventually improving links further east—and only then considering a new north-south route.

Capacity concerns grow

MPs questioned whether the West Coast Main Line (WCML) can cope with demand in the meantime. Labour MP Ruth Cadbury warned the route could be “well over capacity” long before a new line is delivered.

DfT officials acknowledged the uncertainty, noting that predicting long-term passenger demand is increasingly complex, particularly following changes in travel patterns since the pandemic and ongoing reliability challenges across the network.

Funding and delivery pressures

Officials also confirmed that any future Birmingham–Manchester line would not be funded from the existing £45bn NPR budget, leaving open questions about how it will be financed.

Delivery timelines for earlier phases will depend heavily on planning approvals, funding and the ability of the supply chain to handle major infrastructure workloads. The DfT emphasised the need to maintain a steady pipeline of work, avoiding peaks and troughs that could disrupt skills and resources.

Connectivity still under review

Meanwhile, questions remain about regional connectivity, particularly links to Manchester Airport. While improvements are being considered as part of later NPR phases, no firm commitments have yet been made on direct services from areas such as South Yorkshire.

Long road ahead

With major upgrades still to come before any new north-south line is even started, the prospect of a Birmingham–Manchester link remains a long-term ambition rather than an imminent project.

For now, attention remains focused on earlier phases of NPR—while pressure builds to ensure the existing network can cope in the decades before any new line arrives.