Insurers Aviva and Admiral downplay near-term impact of self-driving cars

The UK’s two largest motor insurers, Aviva and Admiral, have sought to temper expectations around the rapid adoption of self-driving vehicles, suggesting that traditional car insurance will remain a core part of their businesses for many years.

Their comments come as the Government closes its consultation on the regulatory framework for automated vehicles, with the first self-driving models expected to begin appearing on UK roads later this year.

The Department for Transport’s consultation, launched in December 2025, has focused on key issues including insurance requirements, licensing of operators and safety standards under the Automated Vehicles Act 2024.

Limited short-term disruption expected

Despite growing interest in autonomous technology and predictions of widespread disruption, both insurers indicated that change is likely to be gradual rather than immediate.

Admiral chief executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis suggested that self-driving vehicles could make up around 4% of the UK car market by 2035, a figure considered conservative compared with some industry forecasts.

She added that the motor insurance sector is expected to continue expanding over the next two decades, reinforcing confidence in its long-term resilience.

Aviva chief executive Amanda Blanc echoed this view, acknowledging that while technological progress is underway, widespread adoption of fully autonomous vehicles is unlikely before 2040.

Recent financial results from both companies also support this outlook, with operating profits rising by more than 10%, underlining the continued strength of the traditional motor insurance market.

Evolving regulation and risk landscape

Under current legislation, insurers remain responsible for compensating victims of road traffic incidents, even where automated driving systems are involved. They may subsequently seek to recover costs from manufacturers or software providers if a defect is identified.

The ongoing consultation aims to clarify how this framework will operate in practice, particularly around data access, safety standards and liability.

Rather than removing insurers from the process, the shift towards automation is expected to gradually reshape the risk landscape. Over time, there may be increased emphasis on product liability, system performance and fleet-based insurance models, alongside existing personal motor policies.

A gradual transition

The relatively cautious outlook from Aviva and Admiral contrasts with more optimistic projections from some analysts, who anticipate faster uptake of autonomous vehicles and greater disruption to traditional car ownership.

However, several factors are expected to slow adoption in the UK, including regulatory requirements, safety thresholds and the relatively slow turnover of the vehicle fleet.

Ministers have emphasised that automated systems must meet or exceed the standard of a “careful and competent” human driver before being widely deployed, while public confidence will also play a critical role.

Outlook for the sector

In the medium term, the shift towards automation is likely to be evolutionary rather than transformative. Insurers are expected to continue writing significant volumes of traditional motor policies while adapting their products to reflect increasing levels of vehicle automation.

Access to high-quality data from connected vehicles will become increasingly important for underwriting and claims management, while partnerships with manufacturers and fleet operators are likely to grow in importance over time.

For now, both Aviva and Admiral expect human-driven vehicles—and those with partial automation—to remain dominant on UK roads well into the 2030s, ensuring motor insurance continues to play a central role in the industry.