TfL considering Heathrow Express future as 2028 agreements approach expiry

Transport for London (TfL) is exploring the future role of Heathrow Express services as key operating agreements linked to the airport rail connection approach expiry in 2028, raising the possibility of the Elizabeth line taking over the route.

The discussion forms part of TfL’s wider submission to the Airports National Policy Statement review, where the organisation argues that major improvements to public transport capacity will be essential if Heathrow Airport expands further without significantly increasing road congestion.

TfL said existing transport infrastructure around the airport will struggle to accommodate future passenger growth unless additional rail capacity and service enhancements are introduced. Alongside proposals for bus, cycling and Piccadilly line improvements, the long-term future of Heathrow Express has emerged as a key consideration.

Heathrow Express currently operates as a premium non-stop service between Heathrow and London Paddington using airport-owned tunnel infrastructure. However, passenger numbers have steadily declined since the launch of the Elizabeth line, which now provides a lower-cost alternative with more frequent stopping services.

According to TfL, the Heathrow Express currently carries an average of around 80 passengers per train despite trains having capacity for more than 370 passengers. The organisation argues that reallocating the four Heathrow Express train paths each hour to the Elizabeth line could significantly increase passenger capacity into central London.

Under a potential takeover scenario, Elizabeth line services could replace Heathrow Express operations entirely, providing additional stopping services to stations between Heathrow and Paddington while also increasing overall network capacity. TfL estimates the move could create room for around 5,600 additional passengers per hour.

The current Heathrow Express operating agreement with GWR, alongside its track access rights into Paddington, expires in 2028 unless renewed. Heathrow Airport would still retain ownership of the tunnel and station infrastructure even if operations transferred to TfL.

While replacing Heathrow Express with Elizabeth line services could mean longer journey times for some airport passengers, TfL believes the wider benefits of increased frequency, lower fares and improved network integration may outweigh the loss of the premium express service.

The potential change also aligns with TfL’s future fleet expansion plans, with additional Class 345 Elizabeth line trains already on order to support future growth and operational flexibility.

TfL’s submission also highlighted the need for long-term upgrades to the Piccadilly line, including signalling improvements that could eventually increase train frequencies through central London to as many as 36 trains per hour.