Autonomous Buses Could Transform Public Transport in Germany, DB Regio Study Finds

Autonomous buses and shuttles have the potential to reshape public transport across Germany if deployed at scale, according to a new study commissioned by DB Regio, Deutsche Bahn’s regional transport subsidiary.

The report, “Autonomous Driving – Key to Tomorrow’s Mobility,” explores scenarios for the year 2045 and is the first to model the nationwide impact of autonomous driving on Germany’s transport system. It was developed in collaboration with mobility software company ioki, the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and Prognos AG, under the guidance of an expert advisory board.

Integrating Autonomous Vehicles into Public Transport

The study highlights that the greatest benefits occur when autonomous vehicles are integrated into public transport networks, rather than deployed as standalone services. In a scenario with around one million autonomous shuttles and buses operating nationwide, services would be expanded and reorganised. Self-driving shuttles could operate as both direct point-to-point services and feeders to existing rail and bus networks.

Under this model, average waiting times could fall to five minutes in metropolitan areas and 13 minutes in rural regions, reducing rural waiting times by roughly 50% compared with today. Journey times could become comparable to private cars, and in some urban areas, even faster.

Frederik Ley, Board Member for Road Transport at DB Regio, said:

“Autonomous driving is coming. The technology and regulatory framework are in place. By developing public transport with autonomous shuttles, optimised bus routes, and better connections to trains, we can improve mobility and quality of life in both cities and rural areas.”

Impacts on Mobility, Traffic, and Costs

The study projects that a nationwide autonomous public transport network could increase the share of passenger transport carried by public services to 35%, more than double the current level. Reduced car dependency could also cut urban traffic congestion by up to 11%.

In contrast, simply automating existing bus services or introducing privately operated robotaxis would deliver limited benefits. Widespread robotaxi use could even increase urban traffic volumes by up to 40% without significantly improving mobility in rural areas.

Financially, the report suggests that operational efficiencies and higher ridership could reduce public funding requirements for public transport by around 20%, even with a substantial service expansion. By 2045, individuals switching from private cars to autonomous public transport could save an average of €170 per month.

Coordinated Planning and Public Acceptance

DB Regio and its partners emphasise that autonomous driving should be used as a tool to redesign public transport networks, rather than applied in isolation. The report concludes that coordinated planning, regulatory support, and user acceptance will be crucial to achieving the projected outcomes.

Knut Ringat, Vice President of the Association of German Transport Companies (VDV) and Managing Director of the Rhine-Main Transport Association (RMV), said:

“Autonomous driving is not an end in itself. It is a great opportunity to make public transport more efficient, reliable, and attractive. We now need to test it in practice, particularly in urban and rural model regions, and actively shape its development alongside our partners.”