HS2 Stays in the Red as Lower Thames Crossing and Northern Powerhouse Rail Show Signs of Progress

The Government's largest infrastructure programmes continue to present a mixed picture, with HS2 retaining its highest-risk delivery status while both Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) and the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) have secured improved confidence ratings in the latest assessment from the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (Nista).

Nista's Major Projects Annual Report 2025/26 provides the latest health check on 189 projects within the Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP), offering an assessment of how likely each scheme is to be delivered successfully against its approved scope, budget and programme.

The report paints a picture of cautious progress across parts of the infrastructure portfolio, while highlighting that some of Britain's most complex projects continue to face significant delivery challenges.

HS2 remains the Government's highest-profile concern

Despite ongoing efforts to reset the programme, HS2 continues to carry a Red delivery confidence rating.

Under Nista's assessment framework, a Red rating indicates that successful delivery against the approved baseline is considered unachievable without significant intervention.

The authority says the rating reflects the current position following last year's correspondence between HS2 Ltd Chief Executive Mark Wild and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, which confirmed the project required a comprehensive reset.

That review has since revealed that the final cost of the railway between London and Birmingham could exceed £100 billion, making it one of the most expensive infrastructure programmes ever undertaken in the UK.

Northern Powerhouse Rail moves out of the danger zone

In contrast, Northern Powerhouse Rail has been upgraded from Red to Amber, representing a significant improvement in delivery confidence.

According to Nista, the higher rating reflects greater certainty following the Government's commitment of up to £45 billion in January 2026, alongside key strategic decisions regarding the Manchester-Liverpool section of the programme and the proposed Crewe-Manchester Hybrid Bill.

While an Amber rating still signals significant delivery risks, it indicates that successful delivery remains achievable provided those risks continue to be actively managed.

The upgrade follows last year's downgrade, when concerns over funding and programme definition saw the project slip into the Red category.

Lower Thames Crossing achieves Green status

Perhaps the strongest performance among the major transport schemes came from the Lower Thames Crossing, which has been upgraded from Amber to Green.

Nista attributes the improved confidence to several important milestones achieved during the year.

These include confirmation of £1.66 billion of public funding through Road Investment Strategy 3 (RIS3), incorporating the £891 million announced in last autumn's Budget alongside previously committed investment.

The report also highlights the Government's decision to pursue a Regulated Asset Base (RAB) financing model, providing greater certainty over how the project will be funded in partnership with the private sector.

According to Nista, these developments have significantly strengthened confidence that the scheme can now be delivered successfully.

East West Rail continues steady progress

East West Rail retains its Amber rating.

While additional design work has been required following confirmation that the new Universal theme park near Bedford will open in 2031, Nista says the revised scope has now been incorporated into the project's latest route-wide consultation.

The authority continues to view the scheme as deliverable, although it remains subject to ongoing programme management and careful control of delivery risks.

Geological Disposal Facility still faces major challenges

Away from transport, the proposed Geological Disposal Facility (GDF) for radioactive waste remains one of the Government's most challenging programmes.

The project continues to hold a Red rating after one of the remaining community partnerships withdrew from the site selection process, reducing location options while recent spending decisions have also delayed key programme activities.

Nista says an action plan is now in place to address these issues.

New focus on Britain's biggest projects

This year's report also introduces a new "mega project" classification for programmes with an estimated whole-life cost exceeding £10 billion.

Initially, three schemes have been designated:

• HS2

• Sizewell C

• Dreadnought

The designation reflects both their scale and the exceptional level of oversight they require.

AI joins Government's project management toolkit

Alongside the latest delivery assessments, Nista has also announced the introduction of an AI-powered Early Warning System designed to identify emerging risks before projects deteriorate.

The new system analyses data across the Government Major Projects Portfolio to identify programmes showing early signs of delivery problems, allowing intervention before projects fall into the Red category.

Nista says the technology is already being embedded into its review processes.

Chief Executive Becky Wood said delivering major infrastructure requires both realism and continuous improvement.

"Transforming infrastructure and public service delivery is a complex task."

She added:

"It requires sustained effort, honest evidence and a willingness to change how government plans, approves and delivers its most complex programmes."

A portfolio showing cautious progress

Overall, the report suggests Britain's infrastructure portfolio is moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

Of the 189 projects assessed, 29 achieved a Green rating, 109 were assessed as Amber and 34 remained Red, while 17projects were exempt from formal assessment.

For the transport sector, the findings offer cautious encouragement. The Lower Thames Crossing's promotion to Green and Northern Powerhouse Rail's recovery to Amber demonstrate that progress is possible when funding, governance and delivery strategies align.